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Andamento dei decessi da influenza A/H1N1v

Nell’ultima settimana (4‐10 gennaio 2010) si sono verificati 6 decessi dovuti all’influenza A/H1N1v . Il grafico riporta tutti i 210 decessi registrati dall’inizio della pandemia (aggiornati al 10 gennaio) e l’incidenza delle sindromi influenzali per settimana, secondo le stime del sistema Influnet.

Il 40% delle persone decedute erano donne . L’obiettivo della sorveglianza dei decessi è conoscere e descrivere l’epidemiologia dei decessi dovuti all’influenza A/H1N1v in termini di possibili fattori di rischio legati a sesso, età, eventuali patologie specifiche o distribuzione geografica, oltre a monitor any changes in the course of the pandemic.

The distribution of deaths by age group indicates that 5% of the deaths occurred in children and teenagers under 14 years while 27% in adults over 65 years of age . The age group most affected are, in fact, that between 15 and 44 years (34% of deaths) and between 45 and 64 years (34%).

The worst affected region was the Campania with 25% of all deaths , followed by Puglia with 16%, from Calabria, Lazio from and Sicily with 7%, and Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna with about 6% of deaths each . Two regions (Valle d'Aosta and Sardinia) have not reported any deaths.

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La curva epidemica, dopo aver arrestato la sua discesa, accenna ora a una lieve risalita

During 1 week (4-10 January 2010), 871 sentinel physicians have posted data on the frequency of influenza-like illness among its clients.

The value of ' overall incidence is 1.30 cases per thousand in slight increase compared to that observed nella settimana precedente (1,23 casi per mille assistiti).

Nella fascia di età 0‐4 anni l’incidenza è pari a 2,34 casi per mille assistiti, nella fascia di età 5‐4 anni l’incidenza è pari a 1,55 , nella fascia di età 15‐64 anni è pari a 1,29 e tra gli adulti di età pari a 65 anni e oltre a 0,83 casi per mille assistiti .

La curva epidemica , dopo aver arrestato la sua discesa , accenna ora a una lieve risalita , dopo aver raggiunto il picco nella 46° settimana con a level of incidence equal to 12.88 cases per thousand, a value above the peak reached in many previous seasons, except in the 002-2003 and 2004-2005 (in this last season has been observed ever higher level of incidence achieved over the past ten years). At the time is difficult to predict whether there will be a further increase in the incidence in the coming weeks and only the virological findings will determine what the virus esponsabile of any increase.

The graph shows the overall incidence and age in the current influenza season and the ten previous. The first two age groups (0-4 and 5-14) have been merged since the beginning of the monitoring data was available only in aggregate form.

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L’incidenza e l’andamento dell’epidemia: la sorveglianza Influnet (aggiornamento settimana 1 2010)

The data show the system Influnet national results, drawn from ' Institute of Health relating to epidemiological surveillance of influenza-like illness . As the table below, the estimated cases of influenza-like illness in 1 week (4-10 January 2010) are 78,000, for a total of 4,103,000 cases from the start of sentinel surveillance Influnet (43 weeks: 19-25 October).

43rd week in 2009 (19-25 October)	270,000
44th week in 2009 (26 Oct-1nov)	558,000
45th week in 2009 (2-8 November)	757,000
46th week in 2009 (9-15 November)	773,000
47th settimana 2009 (16-22 novembre)	661.000
48° settimana 2009 (23-29 novembre)	399.000
49° settimana 2009 (30 nov-6 dic)	222.000
50° settimana 2009 (7-13 dicembre)	131.000
51° settimana 2009 (14-20 dicembre)	107.000
52° settimana 2009 (21-27 dicembre)	73.000
53° settimana 2009 (28 dic-3 gen)	74.000
1° settimana 2010 (4-10 gennaio)	78.000
Totale	4.103.000

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DATI EUROPEI ECDC: SETTIMANA 51 CASI IN AUMENTO, SETTIMANA 52 IN CALO

I dati forniti dall' ECDC confermano il " rialzo " della settimana 51 , un po' come accaduto negli USA , ma evidenziano una forte discesa per quanto riguarda la settimana 52 .

will need to wait for the next report to better interpret these data because the data of the fatal cases (329 in week 51 in Europe) could coincide with the peaking , followed by a drop due to Reduction of Cases of infection .

The data's very low at 52 weeks could be interpreted as the peak downturn. But we may also be facing a effect "holiday" for which the reading of week 52 may be distorted due to incomplete communications from states membri, fatto che parrebbe essere avvalorato dalla nota secondo la quale da Danimarca, Finlandia, Francia, Italia, Islanda, Polonia e Spagna parrebbero non essere stati ricevuti dati di aggiornamento.

La lettura incompleta sggerisce di attendere l'emissione di un prossimo bollettino prima di lanciarci in interpretazioni poco accurate.

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DAGLI USA PRIMI SEGNALI DI RIACUTIZZAZIONE H1N1

Come atteso, dagli Stati Uniti d'America arrivano i primi cenni di ripresa dell'attività influenzale .

Se si tratti oppure no della attesa e temuta " terza ondata " (per gli USA) è soon enough, but some indicators released yesterday by the CDC in Atlanta might lead us to think.

The chart published in this article indicates the number of hits ILI (influenza-like illness) in the USA and, although the most recent available, they updated the week 51 (from 20 to 26 December 2009 ).

• The number of medical visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) is increased dramatically throughout the U.S. during the week surveyed. E ' important to note that this is the first ascent of this parameter after eight consecutive weeks decrease.
  
• The number of hospital admissions patients (all ages) has remained essentially unchanged over the previous week. The proportion of
• descessi due to pneumonia and influenza (P & I) based on survey sample of 122 cities, has increased over the previous settmana and returned above the danger levels epidemic after being dropped below the alert threshold in week 50 for the first time in 11 weeks.

At international level CDC confirmed that the serum samples by sentinel physicians continue to indicate a predominance of the pandemic strain A (H1N1) 2009 virtually throughout the Northern Hemisphere, except for a small percentage of the seasonal virus in Southeast Asia.

Apparently, at least for the week 51, the Influence season still does not spread to latitudes , leaving the field open to the pandemic virus.

will be interesting to follow the report that will be broadcast tomorrow ECDC European to make a comparison with the data now received from the U.S. CDC and see how the situation has evolved in the "old continent".