di Paolo Guerrieri
In una serie di vertici di qui a fine marzo verrà ridisegnato l’intero assetto della governance economica dell’Europa. Le decisioni che vi verranno prese serviranno a fronteggiare i problemi di fondo che hanno determinato in quest’ultimo anno la grave crisi dell’euro. Una situazione di crisi che non è affatto finita. Il pacchetto di misure che verrà approvato dovrà servire a rassicurare i mercati che restano in guardinga attesa. I risultati del negoziato saranno comunque fortemente influenced by internal politics of major countries, primarily Germany.
Pact convergence
The key event to decide the new structure of governance in the euro area and the entire EU is set for the end of March (00:25) . We will gradually with a series of next steps that will define the contents of the EU.
negotiations that will revolve around the proposals for reform of the Stability Pact, together with the new rules of the Stabilization Fund to which is added more recently the proposal of a 'Pact for Competitiveness prepared by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy and in the process of drafting the joint initiative of the Commission and the European Council.
The Franco-German proposal contains a diverse set of measures focusing on wages, pensions and taxation, including: the elimination of unfair automatic indexing of wages to inflation (fiercely opposed by Belgium and Spain ), the increase in retirement ages (very unpleasant Austria) and the development of a common tax base for companies (which sees Ireland strongly opposed), amendments to the Constitutions nazionali per trasformare in legge l’azzeramento dei deficit pubblici (come già fatto dalla Germania); il tutto corredato di sanzioni per i paesi che non si adegueranno a questi vincoli.
Sono misure di natura e finalità assai diverse, alcune da tempo al centro del dibattito europeo e che hanno lo scopo, più o meno dichiarato, di imporre una svolta in chiave rigorista alle politiche economiche, finanziarie, sociali e di bilancio dei paesi dell’eurozona e in particolare dei paesi periferici più in difficoltà. In contropartita la Germania ha lasciato intendere di essere pronta ad impegnarsi nel potenziamento del Fondo salva stati: sia del Fondo attuale (Efsf), sia di permanent one (ESM) that will replace it in 2013, both in terms of resources and modes of operation.
intergovernmental
addition to imposing a set of objectives and constraints common to the policies of member countries on matters of strict national competence, the covenant of convergence relies on the intergovernmental model of peer pressure for its application. Because unlike the EU would be able to guarantee - to that of Merkel and Sarkozy - deadlines and effective procedures. It would thus achieve a kind of enhanced cooperation extended first euro zone, but with the possibility of accession also by other EU member states.
can in fact had serious doubts on the effectiveness of the intergovernmental method in the light of the experiences of the past anything but brilliant. First and foremost that of the Lisbon Strategy for Growth, which has proved completely inadequate in recent years to renovate and modify the different economic models of the various European countries.
More interesting in this regard, it presents the proposal for mediation - with reference to the Franco-German pact - drawn up recently by Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy, which aims to significantly expand the role of the Commission and the Community method in the management and coordination of measures that individual countries should take to further convergence and competitiveness. Even this proposal will be discussed in the next few weeks.
If there are doubts about the great importance for Europe that would approve a package of measures to stimulate greater coordination and a closer alignment between the member countries in areas of vital ' economy, the question is whether those decisions will also help to resolve the ongoing crisis in the euro, creating the conditions for the euro zone to shelter from the risk of imploding in such prophylactic recent months.
The crucial issues to be addressed and dissolve are mainly three: to exit from the crisis countries 'peripheral', build an effective permanent mechanism for crisis management; address the failure of many banking systems in Europe.
periphery countries
The euro crisis is born - as everyone knows - a complex of factors which can be summarized perverse interaction of a number of countries, including the huge growth of private and public debt, on the one hand, and the accumulation of more and less sustainable competitive imbalances, on the other. The fact that these countries were part of a monetary union has given the characters systemic crisis, which require responses that can strengthen the entire system, and not just a case of intervention measures undertaken so far - and always very late - by Europe '.
All the peripheral countries in difficulty, such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, have adopted, the pressure exerted by EU inspectors and the International Monetary Fund, policies and measures to improve very severe. Both of fiscal consolidation aimed to bring public finances under control, whether structural reforms to revive growth potential.
Some first results are beginning to see and new guidelines proposed by the Stability Pact and the convergence will certainly strengthen those adjustment processes.
If plans are national, however painful, are indispensable tools in many countries to deal with sovereign debt crises, it is also true that to be made available to these countries, all the liquidity necessary for the debt settlement process is not hindered and eventually suffocated by deflationary processes.
The problem is that the intervention funds now available to provide financial assistance to countries in difficulty (Efsf) are insufficient in quantity of resources and too expensive. To increase the chances of success of national responses to these funds, therefore, should be significantly strengthened and made more convenient, like on the other hand have long been calling the markets.
stabilization mechanism
In this regard it is important commitment, highlighted in the conclusions of the European Council Angela Merkel and the presentation of the Franco-German Pact, to increase the resources available dell'Efsf, today in fact well below the 440 billion euro available on paper.
more difficult to save the fund were authorized to buy - as requested by many - the titles of the countries in trouble on the secondary market. In this case a positive decision is far from obvious, given the strong resistance of the strongest countries, led by Germany, who fear a negative impact especially in terms of electoral and domestic politics. Which suggests that the European Central Bank will continue to buy government bonds in all situations where markets are not willing to provide the required liquid resources.
dell'Efsf addition to the changes, the other key theme of the European negotiations on the creation of his successor in 2013, the so-called European stabilization mechanism (ESM). About its operation continues to insist - in this case mainly by Chancellor Merkel - the central role to be assigned to the possible default of sovereign debt of countries in the periphery, including providing in this case a kind of 'shearing' of the creditors individuals as a deterrent to future shows in favor of reckless borrowing countries unreliable.
If the theoretical possibility of default of individual countries appear in realtà, pienamente gestibili e percorribili, non vanno affatto sottostimate le gravi ripercussioni che il default del debito sovrano avrebbe all’interno della zona euro, a partire dall’impatto devastante sui bilanci delle banche di molti paesi europei.
Molto meglio sarebbe prospettare un Esm che sia una sorta di Fondo monetario europeo, in grado di contemperare l’assistenza finanziaria ai paesi in difficoltà con una condizionalità adeguata a stimolare le necessarie riforme dei singoli paesi con crisi debitoria. Le risorse per farlo funzionare potrebbero essere reperite attraverso varie strade, e proposte interessanti in merito non mancano.
Ma l’ostacolo maggiore per una decisione in tal senso è eminentemente politico ed è legato ai trasferimenti di risorse - seppur modesti e più che compensati da ritorni complessivi - dai paesi più forti ai paesi in difficoltà che un fondo permanente anticrisi di questo genere potrebbe contemplare. Questi trasferimenti sono giudicati inaccettabili in molti paesi oggi in Europa, in primo luogo in Germania, dove a fine marzo si svolgeranno nel Baden-Wűrttemberg elezioni molto importanti anche per gli equilibri politici nazionali.
Instabilità finanziaria
Il terzo e ultimo tema chiave per una soluzione positiva European crisis regards financial stability. Important measures and mechanisms have been launched in recent months, but remains the key problem to be able to separate the banking crisis of the crisis of sovereign debt. They are now closely intertwined through bank bailouts with taxpayers' money made, as in the case of Ireland. Would need a plan of recapitalization and restructuring of the banking sector, which is a broad, comprehensive and extended to the entire European region. To this end, mechanisms should be established at the reorganization of the banking systems of some countries in order to insulate the banks that failed - and closing - from the rest of the system may instead be renovated and restored.
is not easy to ascertain the correct amount of resources that would cost a set of actions of this kind. The estimates are very different, and indicate, however, important figures, ranging between 100 and 200 billion euro. In this regard, the "stress test" conducted last year to ensure the health of about 90 medium to large European banks could enhance the credibility of the European financial system and its ability to support the ongoing recovery. It was really a test and rose water, however, based on criteria too bland. Suffice it to say that the recapitalization requirement was estimated at just 3.5 billion euro.
It was decided to try again and bring a bit of 'a new check-up of the European banking system, this time using the new European Banking Authority (EBA). The goal is to provide new capital where necessary. But the advances that have been able to gather so far are far from reassuring about the 'severity' of the examinations to be conducted. Skepticism driven in particular by the caution that remains a feature of Germany in the evaluation of the difficulties of its banks.
on this and other aspects of European economic governance of euro zone countries e l’intera Ue saranno comunque chiamati a dare risposte chiare per fronteggiare la situazione di crisi che rimane aperta e foriera di rischi per la stabilità dell’euro.
Paolo Guerrieri è professore ordinario alla ‘Sapienza’ Università di Roma e Vice-presidente dello Iai .
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